WEEK 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 6:20 PM CST

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

10 qualified model plays · 4 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-4-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.5% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +23.3% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +40.2% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tanner McKee

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 204.5
fanduel -113
Projection 122.3
Proj. gap -82.2
Model win 86.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +36.4%
Model-implied EV +62.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 122.3 is 82.2 below the 204.5 line.
Model win probability 86.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 86.4% model win, +36.4% no-vig edge, and +62.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 212 passing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Saquon Barkley

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 52.5
fanduel -113
Projection 85.4
Proj. gap +32.9
Model win 79.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +29.1%
Model-implied EV +49.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 85.4 is 32.9 above the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +49.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 30 rushing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Stefon Diggs

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 42.5
fanduel -113
Projection 70.4
Proj. gap +27.9
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.3%
Model-implied EV +42.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.4 is 27.9 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +42.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 38 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Dallas Goedert

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +112
Projection 3.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 75.1%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +30.9%
Model-implied EV +59.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +30.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +30.9% no-vig edge, and +59.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Dallas Goedert

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 45.5
fanduel -113
Projection 37.1
Proj. gap -8.4
Model win 74.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.2%
Model-implied EV +39.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 37.1 is 8.4 below the 45.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +39.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 30 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Chig Okonkwo

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 32.5
fanduel -113
Projection 27.3
Proj. gap -5.2
Model win 71.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.5%
Model-implied EV +34.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 27.3 is 5.2 below the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 71.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.5% model win, +21.5% no-vig edge, and +34.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 32 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Chig Okonkwo

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -140
Projection 3.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 68.6%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +14.0%
Model-implied EV +17.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +14.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +14.0% no-vig edge, and +17.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#8 MODEL PLAY

Jayden Daniels

Passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -164
Projection 0.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 68.0%
No-vig market 58.3%
No-vig edge +9.7%
Model-implied EV +9.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
#9 MODEL PLAY

Jayden Daniels

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 198.5
fanduel -113
Projection 163.3
Proj. gap -35.2
Model win 67.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.8%
Model-implied EV +27.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 163.3 is 35.2 below the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 217 passing yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Tanner McKee

Passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 0.5
fanduel +172
Projection 0.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 58.5%
No-vig market 34.5%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +59.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.3 is 0.2 below the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 34.5% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +59.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jayden Daniels

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 36.5
fanduel -113
Projection40.0
Proj. gap+3.5
Model win41.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Stefon Diggs

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +132
Projection4.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.0%
No-vig market40.2%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Treylon Burks

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -114
Projection2.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.0%
Model-implied EV-10.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Treylon Burks

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 21.5
fanduel -113
Projection30.8
Proj. gap+9.3
Model win46.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-12.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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