WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
3 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-1-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection
2.7
Proj. gap
+1.2
Model win
80.6%
No-vig market
61.0%
No-vig edge
+19.6%
Model-implied EV
+23.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.7 is 1.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 80.6% vs 61.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 80.6% model win, +19.6% no-vig edge, and +23.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
WIN
OVER 260.5
fanduel -114
Projection
293.5
Proj. gap
+33.0
Model win
62.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.4%
Model-implied EV
+17.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 293.5 is 33.0 above the 260.5 line.
Model win probability 62.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.4% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +17.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 292 passing yards
LOSS
OVER 79.5
fanduel -114
Projection
97.4
Proj. gap
+17.9
Model win
59.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.7%
Model-implied EV
+12.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 97.4 is 17.9 above the 79.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 62 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 50.5
fanduel -114
Projection60.6
Proj. gap+10.1
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 85.5
fanduel -114
Projection101.2
Proj. gap+15.7
Model win56.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -172
Projection7.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win58.2%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-0.9%
Model-implied EV-8.0%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 5.5
fanduel -188
Projection5.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win67.5%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+3.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection75.8
Proj. gap+10.3
Model win48.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.9%
Model-implied EV-9.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154