WEEK 6 · Mon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
8 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 73.5
fanduel -114
Projection
52.9
Proj. gap
-20.6
Model win
83.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+33.8%
Model-implied EV
+57.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.9 is 20.6 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 83.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.8% model win, +33.8% no-vig edge, and +57.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 94 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -102
Projection
4.0
Proj. gap
-1.5
Model win
82.3%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+35.1%
Model-implied EV
+63.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 1.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +35.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +35.1% no-vig edge, and +63.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
OVER 58.5
fanduel -114
Projection
90.5
Proj. gap
+32.0
Model win
78.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+28.3%
Model-implied EV
+46.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 90.5 is 32.0 above the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 78.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 78.3% model win, +28.3% no-vig edge, and +46.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 64 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 39.5
fanduel -114
Projection
30.5
Proj. gap
-9.0
Model win
74.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.8%
Model-implied EV
+40.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 30.5 is 9.0 below the 39.5 line.
Model win probability 74.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.8% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +40.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 53 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -112
Projection
3.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
73.8%
No-vig market
49.4%
No-vig edge
+24.4%
Model-implied EV
+39.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 73.8% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +24.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.8% model win, +24.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -136
Projection
5.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
72.2%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+18.4%
Model-implied EV
+25.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.0 is 0.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +18.4% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 63.5
fanduel -114
Projection
57.9
Proj. gap
-5.6
Model win
71.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.8%
Model-implied EV
+34.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.9 is 5.6 below the 63.5 line.
Model win probability 71.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.8% model win, +21.8% no-vig edge, and +34.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 69 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -158
Projection
0.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
67.8%
No-vig market
57.2%
No-vig edge
+10.7%
Model-implied EV
+10.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +10.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 2 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 2.5
fanduel -198
Projection2.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.8%
No-vig market62.0%
No-vig edge-5.3%
Model-implied EV-14.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 246.5
fanduel -114
Projection238.6
Proj. gap-7.9
Model win55.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 39.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.8
Proj. gap+16.3
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 205.5
fanduel -114
Projection201.4
Proj. gap-4.1
Model win53.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.1%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection37.1
Proj. gap+1.6
Model win39.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796