WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
7 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 198.5
fanduel -114
Projection
147.9
Proj. gap
-50.6
Model win
75.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.2%
Model-implied EV
+41.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 147.9 is 50.6 below the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 199 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -160
Projection
4.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
73.4%
No-vig market
57.5%
No-vig edge
+15.9%
Model-implied EV
+19.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 0.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +15.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +15.9% no-vig edge, and +19.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 11 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection
0.7
Proj. gap
-0.8
Model win
73.3%
No-vig market
64.3%
No-vig edge
+9.0%
Model-implied EV
+6.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.7 is 0.8 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 64.3% no-vig market probability creates a +9.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +9.0% no-vig edge, and +6.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 3 passing TDs
LOSS
OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection
42.0
Proj. gap
+23.5
Model win
68.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.7%
Model-implied EV
+29.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 42.0 is 23.5 above the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 68.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.7% model win, +18.7% no-vig edge, and +29.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 14 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -132
Projection
3.3
Proj. gap
+1.8
Model win
68.2%
No-vig market
53.2%
No-vig edge
+15.0%
Model-implied EV
+19.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 1.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +15.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +15.0% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -148
Projection
0.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
68.2%
No-vig market
55.9%
No-vig edge
+12.4%
Model-implied EV
+14.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.9 is 0.6 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +14.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
WIN
OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection
71.2
Proj. gap
+16.7
Model win
58.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+8.0%
Model-implied EV
+8.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 71.2 is 16.7 above the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 58.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.0% model win, +8.0% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 121 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection70.2
Proj. gap+13.7
Model win54.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -205
Projection2.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.0%
No-vig market62.9%
No-vig edge-12.8%
Model-implied EV-25.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection21.8
Proj. gap+9.3
Model win46.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 55.5
fanduel -114
Projection59.1
Proj. gap+3.6
Model win41.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.4%
Model-implied EV-21.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 201.5
fanduel -114
Projection207.6
Proj. gap+6.1
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection38.5
Proj. gap+8.0
Model win46.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.0%
Model-implied EV-13.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection44.6
Proj. gap+14.1
Model win54.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.6%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796