WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

7 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-2-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 7 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 71.5% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +34.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection 2.4
Proj. gap -1.1
Model win 78.4%
No-vig market 51.4%
No-vig edge +26.9%
Model-implied EV +42.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 1.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 78.4% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.4% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +42.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Kirk Cousins

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 233.5
fanduel -114
Projection 173.6
Proj. gap -59.9
Model win 78.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +28.3%
Model-implied EV +47.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 173.6 is 59.9 below the 233.5 line.
Model win probability 78.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 78.3% model win, +28.3% no-vig edge, and +47.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 243 passing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Michael Mayer

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -114
Projection 2.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 73.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.3%
Model-implied EV +37.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#4 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection 18.6
Proj. gap -5.9
Model win 72.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.2%
Model-implied EV +35.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 18.6 is 5.9 below the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +35.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 50 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Tre Tucker

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection 42.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 67.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.1%
Model-implied EV +26.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 42.0 is 0.5 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +26.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 41 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Drake Maye

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 28.5
Proj. gap -3.0
Model win 66.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.1%
Model-implied EV +24.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 28.5 is 3.0 below the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 25 rushing yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Drake Maye

Passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -108
Projection 2.1
Proj. gap +0.6
Model win 64.9%
No-vig market 48.6%
No-vig edge +16.3%
Model-implied EV +25.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +16.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +16.3% no-vig edge, and +25.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 59.5
fanduel -114
Projection73.9
Proj. gap+14.4
Model win54.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Drake Maye

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 226.5
fanduel -114
Projection227.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win49.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Hunter Henry

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -140
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.1%
No-vig market54.6%
No-vig edge-15.5%
Model-implied EV-33.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Hunter Henry

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection39.5
Proj. gap+2.0
Model win36.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.9%
Model-implied EV-32.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kirk Cousins

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -152
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.9%
No-vig market56.3%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.9%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Mayer

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection30.7
Proj. gap+2.2
Model win36.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Romeo Doubs

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -148
Projection3.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win44.1%
No-vig market55.9%
No-vig edge-11.8%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Romeo Doubs

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.3
Proj. gap+3.8
Model win38.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.6%
Model-implied EV-27.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tre Tucker

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -112
Projection3.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.2%
No-vig market49.4%
No-vig edge-12.2%
Model-implied EV-29.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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