WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

6 qualified model plays · 4 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 67.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +16.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +24.2% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Malik Willis

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 192.5
fanduel -114
Projection 139.1
Proj. gap -53.4
Model win 76.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.4%
Model-implied EV +43.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 139.1 is 53.4 below the 192.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 137 passing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Joe Burrow

Passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -154
Projection 2.5
Proj. gap +1.0
Model win 72.7%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +16.0%
Model-implied EV +19.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.5 is 1.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +16.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +16.0% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
#3 MODEL PLAY

Samaje Perine

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection 41.4
Proj. gap +26.9
Model win 71.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.6%
Model-implied EV +34.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.4 is 26.9 above the 14.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +34.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 68 rushing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Malik Willis

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection 30.9
Proj. gap -1.6
Model win 64.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.7%
Model-implied EV +21.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 30.9 is 1.6 below the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 74 rushing yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Wright

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection 40.7
Proj. gap +19.2
Model win 61.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.3%
Model-implied EV +15.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 40.7 is 19.2 above the 21.5 line.
Model win probability 61.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.3% model win, +11.3% no-vig edge, and +15.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 11 rushing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Joe Burrow

Passing yards
LOSS
OVER 235.5
fanduel -114
Projection 260.9
Proj. gap +25.4
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 260.9 is 25.4 above the 235.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 190 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chase Brown

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Greg Dulcich

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -172
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.5%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-2.5%
Model-implied EV-10.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Greg Dulcich

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection43.2
Proj. gap+15.7
Model win56.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.9%
Model-implied EV+6.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Malik Willis

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -180
Projection0.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win55.2%
No-vig market60.1%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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