WEEK 4 · Thu, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

6 qualified model plays · 10 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-0-0
← Back to Week 4
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +23.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +38.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 13.5
fanduel -114
Projection 50.0
Proj. gap +36.5
Model win 85.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.8%
Model-implied EV +61.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.0 is 36.5 above the 13.5 line.
Model win probability 85.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.8% model win, +35.8% no-vig edge, and +61.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 36 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection 3.5
Proj. gap +2.0
Model win 73.4%
No-vig market 41.7%
No-vig edge +31.7%
Model-implied EV +64.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.5 is 2.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +31.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +31.7% no-vig edge, and +64.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 55.5
fanduel -114
Projection 46.1
Proj. gap -9.4
Model win 72.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.7%
Model-implied EV +36.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 46.1 is 9.4 below the 55.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 53 rushing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 71.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.6%
Model-implied EV +34.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +34.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Pat Freiermuth

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -130
Projection 3.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 71.4%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +18.5%
Model-implied EV +26.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.0 is 0.5 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +26.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#6 MODEL PLAY

DK Metcalf

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.7
Proj. gap +17.2
Model win 58.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.7%
Model-implied EV +10.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.7 is 17.2 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 115 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -225
Projection1.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win64.1%
No-vig market64.6%
No-vig edge-0.5%
Model-implied EV-7.3%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 212.5
fanduel -114
Projection213.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win49.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection4.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.8%
No-vig market51.4%
No-vig edge+0.4%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.5%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-16.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 15.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.8
Proj. gap+13.3
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection43.7
Proj. gap+3.2
Model win37.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.6%
Model-implied EV-29.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaylen Warren

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection73.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win45.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.4%
Model-implied EV-14.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Pat Freiermuth

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection36.1
Proj. gap+7.6
Model win44.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.0%
Model-implied EV-17.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +140
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.6%
No-vig market39.0%
No-vig edge+6.7%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection21.8
Proj. gap+9.3
Model win46.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →