WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
10 qualified model plays · 1 modeled line did not qualify · 4-6-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection
70.2
Proj. gap
+32.7
Model win
81.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+31.4%
Model-implied EV
+52.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.2 is 32.7 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 81.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.4% model win, +31.4% no-vig edge, and +52.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection
76.9
Proj. gap
+32.4
Model win
78.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+28.8%
Model-implied EV
+47.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 76.9 is 32.4 above the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 78.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 78.8% model win, +28.8% no-vig edge, and +47.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 64 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection
55.4
Proj. gap
-5.1
Model win
71.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.4%
Model-implied EV
+33.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.4 is 5.1 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +21.4% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 117 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 0.5
fanduel -192
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
+0.8
Model win
70.2%
No-vig market
61.2%
No-vig edge
+8.9%
Model-implied EV
+6.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.8 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 61.2% no-vig market probability creates a +8.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +8.9% no-vig edge, and +6.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +102
Projection
4.1
Proj. gap
-0.4
Model win
69.8%
No-vig market
46.2%
No-vig edge
+23.6%
Model-implied EV
+41.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +41.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 10 receptions
WIN
UNDER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection
26.4
Proj. gap
-3.1
Model win
66.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.1%
Model-implied EV
+24.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 26.4 is 3.1 below the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 16 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 79.5
fanduel -114
Projection
77.6
Proj. gap
-1.9
Model win
64.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+14.9%
Model-implied EV
+21.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 77.6 is 1.9 below the 79.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +21.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 9 rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 4.5
fanduel +112
Projection
5.9
Proj. gap
+1.4
Model win
60.9%
No-vig market
44.1%
No-vig edge
+16.8%
Model-implied EV
+29.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.9 is 1.4 above the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +29.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
WIN
UNDER 188.5
fanduel -114
Projection
172.0
Proj. gap
-16.5
Model win
59.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.1%
Model-implied EV
+11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 172.0 is 16.5 below the 188.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 183 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 206.5
fanduel -114
Projection
193.9
Proj. gap
-12.6
Model win
57.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+7.6%
Model-implied EV
+8.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 193.9 is 12.6 below the 206.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +7.6% no-vig edge, and +8.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 264 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +140
Projection1.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win51.9%
No-vig market39.0%
No-vig edge+13.0%
Model-implied EV+24.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516