WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens

6 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-2-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 67.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +17.6% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +26.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Devaughn Vele

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection 66.6
Proj. gap +28.1
Model win 75.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.5%
Model-implied EV +41.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 66.6 is 28.1 above the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +25.5% no-vig edge, and +41.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 64 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Chris Olave

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection 95.0
Proj. gap +25.5
Model win 72.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.0%
Model-implied EV +35.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 95.0 is 25.5 above the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 72.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.0% model win, +22.0% no-vig edge, and +35.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 86 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Lamar Jackson

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 228.5
fanduel -114
Projection 189.7
Proj. gap -38.8
Model win 70.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +20.0%
Model-implied EV +31.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 189.7 is 38.8 below the 228.5 line.
Model win probability 70.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.0% model win, +20.0% no-vig edge, and +31.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 235 passing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing yards
WIN
OVER 240.5
fanduel -114
Projection 284.0
Proj. gap +43.5
Model win 67.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.4%
Model-implied EV +26.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 284.0 is 43.5 above the 240.5 line.
Model win probability 67.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.4% model win, +17.4% no-vig edge, and +26.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 252 passing yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Derrick Henry

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 88.5
fanduel -114
Projection 108.8
Proj. gap +20.3
Model win 62.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +12.9%
Model-implied EV +18.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 108.8 is 20.3 above the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 62.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.9% model win, +12.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 68 rushing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Devaughn Vele

Receptions
WIN
OVER 3.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.8
Proj. gap +1.3
Model win 57.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +7.5%
Model-implied EV +8.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.8 is 1.3 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 57.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.5% model win, +7.5% no-vig edge, and +8.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 5.5
fanduel -118
Projection6.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.3%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge+5.7%
Model-implied EV+4.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Lamar Jackson

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -122
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.6%
No-vig market51.4%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tyler Shough

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection1.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win64.0%
No-vig market64.3%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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