WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

5 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-1-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 5 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.2% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +17.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +25.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Colston Loveland

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection 3.6
Proj. gap -0.9
Model win 76.8%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +23.0%
Model-implied EV +33.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 76.8% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.8% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +33.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#2 MODEL PLAY

Colston Loveland

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection 40.9
Proj. gap -8.6
Model win 74.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.5%
Model-implied EV +39.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 40.9 is 8.6 below the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 74.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.5% model win, +24.5% no-vig edge, and +39.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Carson Wentz

Passing yards
LOSS
OVER 207.5
fanduel -114
Projection 249.8
Proj. gap +42.3
Model win 67.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.1%
Model-implied EV +25.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 249.8 is 42.3 above the 207.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +25.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 143 passing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Luther Burden III

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -140
Projection 4.5
Proj. gap -0.0
Model win 64.3%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +9.7%
Model-implied EV +10.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Caleb Williams

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 221.5
fanduel -114
Projection 195.6
Proj. gap -25.9
Model win 63.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.2%
Model-implied EV +18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 195.6 is 25.9 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 138 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection1.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win58.9%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge+5.1%
Model-implied EV+2.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Carson Wentz

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection1.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win62.6%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-4.1%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

D'Andre Swift

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection62.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win37.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.4%
Model-implied EV-29.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Jefferson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 5.5
fanduel -148
Projection5.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.4%
No-vig market55.9%
No-vig edge-17.5%
Model-implied EV-35.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Jefferson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 71.5
fanduel -114
Projection72.9
Proj. gap+1.4
Model win35.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-14.8%
Model-implied EV-33.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kyle Monangai

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection46.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win45.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.4%
Model-implied EV-14.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Luther Burden III

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.8
Proj. gap+7.3
Model win43.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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