WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

6 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 6 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 6 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 71.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.3% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +33.9% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Warren

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +100
Projection 3.9
Proj. gap -1.6
Model win 83.3%
No-vig market 46.8%
No-vig edge +36.6%
Model-implied EV +66.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.9 is 1.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 83.3% vs 46.8% no-vig market probability creates a +36.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.3% model win, +36.6% no-vig edge, and +66.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Jonathan Taylor

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -136
Projection 2.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +21.5%
Model-implied EV +30.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 0.7 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +21.5% no-vig edge, and +30.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Warren

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection 35.6
Proj. gap -5.9
Model win 72.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.2%
Model-implied EV +35.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 35.6 is 5.9 below the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +35.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jonathan Taylor

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection 20.1
Proj. gap -2.4
Model win 69.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.1%
Model-implied EV +29.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 20.1 is 2.4 below the 22.5 line.
Model win probability 69.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.1% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +29.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Daniel Jones

Passing yards
Pending
OVER 182.5
fanduel -114
Projection 223.1
Proj. gap +40.6
Model win 66.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.5%
Model-implied EV +24.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 223.1 is 40.6 above the 182.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +24.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#6 MODEL PLAY

Greg Dulcich

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection 53.8
Proj. gap +19.3
Model win 61.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.9%
Model-implied EV +16.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.8 is 19.3 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 61.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.9% model win, +11.9% no-vig edge, and +16.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Daniel Jones

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -235
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.9%
No-vig market65.6%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-17.4%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Greg Dulcich

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -118
Projection3.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.2%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge-12.4%
Model-implied EV-29.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jonathan Taylor

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.6
Proj. gap+7.1
Model win44.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.3%
Model-implied EV-16.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
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