WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
1 qualified model play · 11 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 1 pending
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
Pending
OVER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection
78.0
Proj. gap
+17.5
Model win
59.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.4%
Model-implied EV
+11.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 78.0 is 17.5 above the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 59.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.4% model win, +9.4% no-vig edge, and +11.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +120
Projection3.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.2%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge-4.3%
Model-implied EV-15.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection43.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win44.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-17.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -240
Projection1.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win71.5%
No-vig market65.9%
No-vig edge+5.6%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 198.5
fanduel -114
Projection188.4
Proj. gap-10.1
Model win56.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -114
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+6.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.6
Proj. gap+14.1
Model win54.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +120
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.0%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge-4.5%
Model-implied EV-16.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 58.5
fanduel -114
Projection74.6
Proj. gap+16.1
Model win56.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+6.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection2.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win65.5%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+0.3%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 243.5
fanduel -114
Projection240.8
Proj. gap-2.7
Model win51.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 7.5
fanduel -114
Projection23.1
Proj. gap+15.6
Model win56.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.3%
Model-implied EV+5.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796