WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
6 qualified model plays · 2 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -125
Projection
4.6
Proj. gap
-1.9
Model win
86.7%
No-vig market
51.9%
No-vig edge
+34.8%
Model-implied EV
+56.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.6 is 1.9 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 86.7% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +34.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.7% model win, +34.8% no-vig edge, and +56.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection
47.2
Proj. gap
-21.3
Model win
84.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+34.1%
Model-implied EV
+57.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 47.2 is 21.3 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 84.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.1% model win, +34.1% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 104 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 10.5
fanduel -114
Projection
38.6
Proj. gap
+28.1
Model win
73.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+23.6%
Model-implied EV
+38.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.6 is 28.1 above the 10.5 line.
Model win probability 73.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 73.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +38.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 8 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 59.5
fanduel -114
Projection
55.3
Proj. gap
-4.2
Model win
67.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.5%
Model-implied EV
+26.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.3 is 4.2 below the 59.5 line.
Model win probability 67.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.5% model win, +17.5% no-vig edge, and +26.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 44 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 206.5
fanduel -114
Projection
178.9
Proj. gap
-27.6
Model win
63.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.4%
Model-implied EV
+19.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 178.9 is 27.6 below the 206.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 182 passing yards
LOSS
OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection
53.0
Proj. gap
+17.5
Model win
59.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.2%
Model-implied EV
+11.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.0 is 17.5 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 59.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.2% model win, +9.2% no-vig edge, and +11.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -200
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.8%
No-vig market62.3%
No-vig edge-4.6%
Model-implied EV-13.4%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.1%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-14.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154