WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
7 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 15.5
fanduel -114
Projection
53.2
Proj. gap
+37.7
Model win
84.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+34.8%
Model-implied EV
+59.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.2 is 37.7 above the 15.5 line.
Model win probability 84.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 84.8% model win, +34.8% no-vig edge, and +59.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 8 rushing yards
WIN
OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection
49.8
Proj. gap
+28.3
Model win
75.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.9%
Model-implied EV
+42.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 49.8 is 28.3 above the 21.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +42.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 86 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection
4.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
73.4%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+20.6%
Model-implied EV
+29.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 0.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
UNDER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection
56.6
Proj. gap
-4.9
Model win
71.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.3%
Model-implied EV
+33.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 56.6 is 4.9 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +21.3% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 26 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -180
Projection
3.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
68.0%
No-vig market
60.1%
No-vig edge
+7.9%
Model-implied EV
+5.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +7.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +7.9% no-vig edge, and +5.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 223.5
fanduel -114
Projection
204.2
Proj. gap
-19.3
Model win
60.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.5%
Model-implied EV
+13.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 204.2 is 19.3 below the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 287 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 183.5
fanduel -114
Projection
166.0
Proj. gap
-17.5
Model win
59.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.7%
Model-implied EV
+12.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 166.0 is 17.5 below the 183.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 208 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win58.1%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+0.9%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +124
Projection3.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win57.3%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+15.6%
Model-implied EV+28.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -198
Projection0.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win55.2%
No-vig market62.0%
No-vig edge-6.8%
Model-implied EV-16.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection31.9
Proj. gap+1.4
Model win39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection29.9
Proj. gap+7.4
Model win43.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.6%
Model-implied EV-18.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154