WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
2 qualified model plays · 2 modeled lines did not qualify · 0-2-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel +116
Projection
2.1
Proj. gap
+0.6
Model win
64.9%
No-vig market
43.3%
No-vig edge
+21.6%
Model-implied EV
+40.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +40.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
LOSS
OVER 224.5
fanduel -114
Projection
260.5
Proj. gap
+36.0
Model win
64.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+14.7%
Model-implied EV
+21.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 260.5 is 36.0 above the 224.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 208 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -245
Projection1.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win64.9%
No-vig market66.4%
No-vig edge-1.5%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 206.5
fanduel -114
Projection200.8
Proj. gap-5.7
Model win54.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516