WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
7 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-1-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 70.5
fanduel -114
Projection
33.4
Proj. gap
-37.1
Model win
88.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+38.6%
Model-implied EV
+66.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 33.4 is 37.1 below the 70.5 line.
Model win probability 88.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 88.6% model win, +38.6% no-vig edge, and +66.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 33 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -146
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
-1.9
Model win
86.5%
No-vig market
55.5%
No-vig edge
+31.1%
Model-implied EV
+45.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 1.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 86.5% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +31.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.5% model win, +31.1% no-vig edge, and +45.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection
3.7
Proj. gap
-1.8
Model win
85.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.3%
Model-implied EV
+60.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 1.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 85.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.3% model win, +35.3% no-vig edge, and +60.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
WIN
UNDER 252.5
fanduel -114
Projection
186.1
Proj. gap
-66.4
Model win
80.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+30.8%
Model-implied EV
+51.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 186.1 is 66.4 below the 252.5 line.
Model win probability 80.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 80.8% model win, +30.8% no-vig edge, and +51.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 163 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection
51.3
Proj. gap
-16.2
Model win
80.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+30.3%
Model-implied EV
+50.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.3 is 16.2 below the 67.5 line.
Model win probability 80.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.3% model win, +30.3% no-vig edge, and +50.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection
57.8
Proj. gap
-11.7
Model win
77.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+27.0%
Model-implied EV
+44.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.8 is 11.7 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 77.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.0% model win, +27.0% no-vig edge, and +44.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 40 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection
66.5
Proj. gap
-2.0
Model win
64.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+14.9%
Model-implied EV
+21.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 66.5 is 2.0 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +21.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 106 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -210
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win55.2%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-18.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 215.5
fanduel -114
Projection206.4
Proj. gap-9.1
Model win56.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.0%
Model-implied EV+5.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +116
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge+11.5%
Model-implied EV+18.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +120
Projection3.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.4%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+4.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.7
Proj. gap+12.2
Model win50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154