WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

New York Giants @ Houston Texans

9 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-4-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +43.7% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 23.5
fanduel -114
Projection 61.4
Proj. gap +37.9
Model win 85.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.3%
Model-implied EV +60.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 61.4 is 37.9 above the 23.5 line.
Model win probability 85.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 85.3% model win, +35.3% no-vig edge, and +60.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 15 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 255.5
fanduel -114
Projection 177.7
Proj. gap -77.8
Model win 84.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +34.7%
Model-implied EV +59.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 177.7 is 77.8 below the 255.5 line.
Model win probability 84.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 84.7% model win, +34.7% no-vig edge, and +59.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 153 passing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Malik Nabers

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -104
Projection 4.5
Proj. gap -1.0
Model win 77.6%
No-vig market 47.6%
No-vig edge +30.0%
Model-implied EV +52.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 1.0 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 47.6% no-vig market probability creates a +30.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +30.0% no-vig edge, and +52.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 10.5
fanduel -114
Projection 38.3
Proj. gap +27.8
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.3%
Model-implied EV +41.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.3 is 27.8 above the 10.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +41.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 17 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Cam Skattebo

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 56.5
Proj. gap +25.0
Model win 69.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.5%
Model-implied EV +30.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 56.5 is 25.0 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +30.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 124 rushing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Nico Collins

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +104
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 68.0%
No-vig market 45.8%
No-vig edge +22.2%
Model-implied EV +38.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#7 MODEL PLAY

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -108
Projection 3.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 67.6%
No-vig market 48.6%
No-vig edge +19.1%
Model-implied EV +30.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 1.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.6% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.6% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +30.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#8 MODEL PLAY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +172
Projection 3.0
Proj. gap +1.5
Model win 61.7%
No-vig market 34.4%
No-vig edge +27.3%
Model-implied EV +67.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.0 is 1.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 61.7% vs 34.4% no-vig market probability creates a +27.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.7% model win, +27.3% no-vig edge, and +67.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#9 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection 47.9
Proj. gap +18.4
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.7%
Model-implied EV +13.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 47.9 is 18.4 above the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +138
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.0%
No-vig market39.2%
No-vig edge+16.8%
Model-implied EV+33.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

J.J. McCarthy

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -215
Projection1.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win61.6%
No-vig market63.8%
No-vig edge-2.2%
Model-implied EV-9.7%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

J.J. McCarthy

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 202.5
fanduel -114
Projection190.5
Proj. gap-12.0
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Malik Nabers

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection76.6
Proj. gap+8.1
Model win44.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-16.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -118
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.6%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge+6.0%
Model-implied EV+4.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Nico Collins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection72.2
Proj. gap+3.7
Model win38.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.8%
Model-implied EV-28.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection24.6
Proj. gap+15.1
Model win55.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.5%
Model-implied EV+4.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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