WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 3:05 PM CDT
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
5 qualified model plays · 2 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-2-0 - 1 void
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 169.5
fanduel -114
Projection
107.0
Proj. gap
-62.5
Model win
79.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+29.1%
Model-implied EV
+48.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 107.0 is 62.5 below the 169.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 85 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.9
Proj. gap
-8.6
Model win
72.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.1%
Model-implied EV
+35.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.9 is 8.6 below the 67.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 94 rushing yards
VOID
UNDER 2.5
fanduel +108
Projection
2.4
Proj. gap
-0.1
Model win
65.5%
No-vig market
44.9%
No-vig edge
+20.6%
Model-implied EV
+36.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 0.1 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 65.5% vs 44.9% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.5% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +36.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
WIN
UNDER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection
30.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
63.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.1%
Model-implied EV
+18.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 30.2 is 0.3 below the 30.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 11 rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection
42.8
Proj. gap
+20.3
Model win
62.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.9%
Model-implied EV
+18.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 42.8 is 20.3 above the 22.5 line.
Model win probability 62.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.9% model win, +12.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 7 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection30.7
Proj. gap+3.2
Model win37.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.6%
Model-implied EV-29.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel +102
Projection0.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win55.2%
No-vig market46.2%
No-vig edge+9.0%
Model-implied EV+11.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516