WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
7 qualified model plays · 4 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -130
Projection
3.5
Proj. gap
-1.0
Model win
77.6%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+24.8%
Model-implied EV
+37.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.5 is 1.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -108
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
76.6%
No-vig market
48.6%
No-vig edge
+28.1%
Model-implied EV
+47.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +28.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +28.1% no-vig edge, and +47.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 8 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection
47.2
Proj. gap
-7.3
Model win
73.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+23.4%
Model-implied EV
+37.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 47.2 is 7.3 below the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +23.4% no-vig edge, and +37.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 66 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection
37.0
Proj. gap
-5.5
Model win
71.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.7%
Model-implied EV
+34.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 37.0 is 5.5 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 71.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.7% model win, +21.7% no-vig edge, and +34.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +116
Projection
4.1
Proj. gap
-0.4
Model win
71.2%
No-vig market
43.3%
No-vig edge
+27.9%
Model-implied EV
+53.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +27.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +27.9% no-vig edge, and +53.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection
53.7
Proj. gap
-3.8
Model win
70.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.2%
Model-implied EV
+31.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.7 is 3.8 below the 57.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +20.2% no-vig edge, and +31.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 101 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 222.5
fanduel -114
Projection
196.4
Proj. gap
-26.1
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 196.4 is 26.1 below the 222.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 287 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 84.5
fanduel -114
Projection91.9
Proj. gap+7.4
Model win45.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -158
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-2.3%
Model-implied EV-10.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -132
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win38.6%
No-vig market53.2%
No-vig edge-14.6%
Model-implied EV-32.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection59.4
Proj. gap+2.9
Model win37.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.8%
Model-implied EV-30.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154