WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
4 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-2-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection
63.4
Proj. gap
+28.9
Model win
76.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.6%
Model-implied EV
+43.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.4 is 28.9 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 4.5
fanduel +124
Projection
6.0
Proj. gap
+1.5
Model win
62.7%
No-vig market
41.7%
No-vig edge
+21.0%
Model-implied EV
+40.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.0 is 1.5 above the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 62.7% vs 41.7% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.7% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +40.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
WIN
OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection
48.2
Proj. gap
+18.7
Model win
61.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+11.0%
Model-implied EV
+14.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 48.2 is 18.7 above the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +11.0% no-vig edge, and +14.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 91 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 190.5
fanduel -114
Projection
173.5
Proj. gap
-17.0
Model win
59.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.7%
Model-implied EV
+12.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 173.5 is 17.0 below the 190.5 line.
Model win probability 59.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.7% model win, +9.7% no-vig edge, and +12.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 181 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -240
Projection1.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win69.6%
No-vig market65.9%
No-vig edge+3.7%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win49.5%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-2.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection83.7
Proj. gap+16.2
Model win56.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+6.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796