WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns

8 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 75.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +40.5% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Chuba Hubbard

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 73.5
fanduel -114
Projection 46.4
Proj. gap -27.1
Model win 84.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +34.2%
Model-implied EV +58.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 46.4 is 27.1 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 84.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 84.2% model win, +34.2% no-vig edge, and +58.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 82 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -154
Projection 3.9
Proj. gap -1.6
Model win 83.2%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +26.5%
Model-implied EV +37.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.9 is 1.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 83.2% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +26.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.2% model win, +26.5% no-vig edge, and +37.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection 44.8
Proj. gap -16.7
Model win 80.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.7%
Model-implied EV +51.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 44.8 is 16.7 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 80.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.7% model win, +30.7% no-vig edge, and +51.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 18 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection 51.3
Proj. gap -10.2
Model win 75.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.6%
Model-implied EV +42.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.3 is 10.2 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 75.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.6% model win, +25.6% no-vig edge, and +42.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 17 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection 3.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 74.1%
No-vig market 42.8%
No-vig edge +31.3%
Model-implied EV +61.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +31.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +31.3% no-vig edge, and +61.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#6 MODEL PLAY

Bryce Young

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 223.5
fanduel -114
Projection 176.5
Proj. gap -47.0
Model win 74.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +39.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 176.5 is 47.0 below the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +39.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 291 passing yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 2.5
fanduel -140
Projection 2.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 67.7%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +13.2%
Model-implied EV +16.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.3 is 0.2 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 67.7% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.7% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +16.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#8 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection 56.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 63.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.2%
Model-implied EV +18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 56.1 is 0.4 below the 56.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 70 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -152
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market56.3%
No-vig edge-1.5%
Model-implied EV-9.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection19.1
Proj. gap+4.6
Model win42.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.5%
Model-implied EV-20.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darren Waller

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -122
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.2%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-6.4%
Model-implied EV-17.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darren Waller

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection33.4
Proj. gap+8.9
Model win45.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -140
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win52.1%
No-vig market54.6%
No-vig edge-2.5%
Model-implied EV-10.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection49.1
Proj. gap+11.6
Model win50.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.0%
Model-implied EV-6.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection18.1
Proj. gap+5.6
Model win40.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-23.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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