WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
5 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-1-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -148
Projection
2.3
Proj. gap
-2.2
Model win
89.1%
No-vig market
55.9%
No-vig edge
+33.3%
Model-implied EV
+49.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.3 is 2.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 89.1% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +33.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 89.1% model win, +33.3% no-vig edge, and +49.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
WIN
UNDER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection
19.6
Proj. gap
-8.9
Model win
74.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.7%
Model-implied EV
+40.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 19.6 is 8.9 below the 28.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +24.7% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 15 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.7
Proj. gap
-6.8
Model win
70.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.5%
Model-implied EV
+32.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.7 is 6.8 below the 65.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +32.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 94 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection
61.6
Proj. gap
-3.9
Model win
66.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.8%
Model-implied EV
+25.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 61.6 is 3.9 below the 65.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +25.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 48 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 223.5
fanduel -114
Projection
200.3
Proj. gap
-23.2
Model win
61.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+11.8%
Model-implied EV
+16.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 200.3 is 23.2 below the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 61.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.8% model win, +11.8% no-vig edge, and +16.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 192 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -122
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.2%
No-vig market51.4%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -260
Projection1.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win68.4%
No-vig market67.5%
No-vig edge+0.9%
Model-implied EV-5.3%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 192.5
fanduel -114
Projection198.8
Proj. gap+6.3
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516