Prop Drop & Roll

NFL Week 1 Player Props

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

FanDuel Wed, Sep 9, 7:20 PM CDT Model-driven player prop screening

Qualified picks 7

Over 4

Under 3

Total modeled 20

#	Player	Market	Pick	Line	Model	Proj. edge	Win %	Price	No-vig edge	EV	n	Reason
1	TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yards	Rush Yards	OVER	24.5	56.83	32.33	78.4%	-114	28.4%	47.2%	796	Qualified
2	Romeo Doubs Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	OVER	36.5	60.42	23.92	69.2%	-114	19.2%	29.9%	2154	Qualified
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	UNDER	82.5	82.01	-0.49	67.1%	-114	17.1%	26.0%	2154	Qualified
4	A.J. Brown Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	OVER	60.5	82.62	22.12	66.2%	-114	16.2%	24.4%	2154	Qualified
5	Sam Darnold Pass Yards	Pass Yards	UNDER	228.5	195.28	-33.22	66.1%	-114	16.1%	24.1%	516	Qualified
6	Drake Maye Pass TDs	Pass TDs	OVER	1.5	2.10	0.60	65.5%	+134	25.6%	53.3%	516	Qualified
7	Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions	Receptions	UNDER	6.5	6.47	-0.03	64.2%	-130	11.3%	13.5%	2154	Qualified
8	A.J. Brown Receptions	Receptions	PASS	4.5	5.95	1.45	61.3%	-148	5.5%	2.8%	2154	Ev Below Threshold
9	Sam Darnold Pass TDs	Pass TDs	PASS	1.5	1.23	-0.27	59.3%	-140	4.7%	1.7%	516	Market Edge Below Threshold
10	Drake Maye Pass Yards	Pass Yards	PASS	232.5	247.97	15.47	55.2%	-114	5.2%	3.7%	516	Model Probability Below Threshold
11	Cooper Kupp Receptions	Receptions	PASS	2.5	3.18	0.68	48.2%	-132	-5.0%	-15.2%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
12	Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions	Receptions	PASS	2.5	3.19	0.69	48.2%	-180	-11.8%	-25.0%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
13	Rhamondre Stevenson Rush Yards	Rush Yards	PASS	47.5	56.49	8.99	47.5%	-114	-2.5%	-10.9%	796	Model Probability Below Threshold
14	Romeo Doubs Receptions	Receptions	PASS	3.5	4.01	0.51	45.1%	+116	1.8%	-2.5%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
15	Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	PASS	30.5	38.62	8.12	44.5%	-114	-5.5%	-16.4%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
16	AJ Barner Receptions	Receptions	PASS	2.5	2.79	0.29	41.0%	-148	-14.9%	-31.3%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
17	Hunter Henry Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	PASS	34.5	39.54	5.04	40.0%	-114	-10.0%	-24.9%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
18	AJ Barner Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	PASS	24.5	29.28	4.78	39.6%	-114	-10.4%	-25.6%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
19	Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards	Receiving Yards	PASS	23.5	27.81	4.31	39.1%	-114	-10.9%	-26.6%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold
20	Hunter Henry Receptions	Receptions	PASS	3.5	3.67	0.17	38.6%	+134	-1.3%	-9.6%	2154	Model Probability Below Threshold

No props match these filters.

TreVeyon Henderson

Rush Yards

OVER

FanDuel line 24.5

Model 56.83

Proj. edge 32.33

Win prob. 78.4%

Price -114

No-vig edge 28.4%

EV 47.2%

Qualified n=796

Romeo Doubs

Receiving Yards

OVER

FanDuel line 36.5

Model 60.42

Proj. edge 23.92

Win prob. 69.2%

Price -114

No-vig edge 19.2%

EV 29.9%

Qualified n=2154

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving Yards

UNDER

FanDuel line 82.5

Model 82.01

Proj. edge -0.49

Win prob. 67.1%

Price -114

No-vig edge 17.1%

EV 26.0%

Qualified n=2154

A.J. Brown

Receiving Yards

OVER

FanDuel line 60.5

Model 82.62

Proj. edge 22.12

Win prob. 66.2%

Price -114

No-vig edge 16.2%

EV 24.4%

Qualified n=2154

Sam Darnold

Pass Yards

UNDER

FanDuel line 228.5

Model 195.28

Proj. edge -33.22

Win prob. 66.1%

Price -114

No-vig edge 16.1%

EV 24.1%

Qualified n=516

Drake Maye

Pass TDs

OVER

FanDuel line 1.5

Model 2.10

Proj. edge 0.60

Win prob. 65.5%

Price +134

No-vig edge 25.6%

EV 53.3%

Qualified n=516

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions

UNDER

FanDuel line 6.5

Model 6.47

Proj. edge -0.03

Win prob. 64.2%

Price -130

No-vig edge 11.3%

EV 13.5%

Qualified n=2154

A.J. Brown

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 4.5

Model 5.95

Proj. edge 1.45

Win prob. 61.3%

Price -148

No-vig edge 5.5%

EV 2.8%

Ev Below Threshold n=2154

Sam Darnold

Pass TDs

PASS

FanDuel line 1.5

Model 1.23

Proj. edge -0.27

Win prob. 59.3%

Price -140

No-vig edge 4.7%

EV 1.7%

Market Edge Below Threshold n=516

Drake Maye

Pass Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 232.5

Model 247.97

Proj. edge 15.47

Win prob. 55.2%

Price -114

No-vig edge 5.2%

EV 3.7%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=516

Cooper Kupp

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 2.5

Model 3.18

Proj. edge 0.68

Win prob. 48.2%

Price -132

No-vig edge -5.0%

EV -15.2%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 2.5

Model 3.19

Proj. edge 0.69

Win prob. 48.2%

Price -180

No-vig edge -11.8%

EV -25.0%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rush Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 47.5

Model 56.49

Proj. edge 8.99

Win prob. 47.5%

Price -114

No-vig edge -2.5%

EV -10.9%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=796

Romeo Doubs

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 3.5

Model 4.01

Proj. edge 0.51

Win prob. 45.1%

Price +116

No-vig edge 1.8%

EV -2.5%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Cooper Kupp

Receiving Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 30.5

Model 38.62

Proj. edge 8.12

Win prob. 44.5%

Price -114

No-vig edge -5.5%

EV -16.4%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

AJ Barner

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 2.5

Model 2.79

Proj. edge 0.29

Win prob. 41.0%

Price -148

No-vig edge -14.9%

EV -31.3%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Hunter Henry

Receiving Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 34.5

Model 39.54

Proj. edge 5.04

Win prob. 40.0%

Price -114

No-vig edge -10.0%

EV -24.9%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

AJ Barner

Receiving Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 24.5

Model 29.28

Proj. edge 4.78

Win prob. 39.6%

Price -114

No-vig edge -10.4%

EV -25.6%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Rhamondre Stevenson

Receiving Yards

PASS

FanDuel line 23.5

Model 27.81

Proj. edge 4.31

Win prob. 39.1%

Price -114

No-vig edge -10.9%

EV -26.6%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

Hunter Henry

Receptions

PASS

FanDuel line 3.5

Model 3.67

Proj. edge 0.17

Win prob. 38.6%

Price +134

No-vig edge -1.3%

EV -9.6%

Model Probability Below Threshold n=2154

No props match these filters.